Record October NOPA Crush, Strong Sales but Ending Stocks Burdensome

Weekly export sales on Thursday were 51% lower than the prior week but the business that has taken place throughout the season more than makes up for the slowdown. However, the likelihood of US ending stocks moving above 500 million bushels continues to limit gains. The market place is seemingly hopeful for a weather hiccup in South America but there are no threats on the horizon thus far. Should Brazil’s harvest not see any interruptions, China should not hesitate to switch origin away from US into January.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s soybean plantings are at 11% versus 20% the prior year as cold and wet weather has hampered productivity since early the beginning of October.¬†AgRural estimates Brazilian soybean planting at 63%, slightly higher than the 60% from last year at this time. They see planting in the top state of Mato Grosso at 90% complete and in the number two state of Parana, they estimate plantings to be 80% complete.

October NOPA crush came in at 164.641 mbu which implies a Census crush estimate of 175.2 mbu, a 3.6% gain from prior year and the largest on record for the month of October.  This was the second largest NOPA crush estimate on record behind 165.4 mbu seen in Dec 2014. While the crush data wa supportive for the market, SA weather will be in focus until early next year with little risk seen in the near-term.

WRITTEN BY Alyssa Badger

Alyssa started her career in 2008 at the Board of Trade managing a firm that had a primary focus in grains. The nucleus of her position centered around order entry and research development; from there, Alyssa's enthusiasm for commodities continued to grow and expand. This enthusiasm lead her to move to West Texas and assist in hedging for the largest originator of U.S. cotton to textile mills worldwide. Alyssa has now settled back in Chicago as a Trading Consultant for Highground Trading, Inc. Contact Alyssa