Soybeans: Prices have recovered much of what was lost during the back half of January with a nice long-term uptrend noted from the lows made in summer 2016. Funds were net buyers of the commodity heading into the USDA report, which ended up leaning slightly bearish with ending stocks at 420 million bushels compared to the average estimate of 410 million bushels. In tandem with the bearish USDA report, Conab lifted their Brazil soybean crop estimate to a record 105.6 million MT in the 2016/17 crop season – some analysts/traders are even higher.
Brazil has officially started its 2016/17 soybean export campaign this month with the shipping schedule on the docket for February being reportedly aggressive. The market is expecting Brazil’s soybean exports to reach a new high for the month. About 4.7 million tonnes of soybeans are scheduled to sail in February, and if this plan comes true, shipments for the month will more than double the levels of February the prior year. Brazil farm selling continues to be light due in part to Brl/$ rate but is expected to pick up off the combines and to make room for corn storage.
Argentina’s soy crop is dealing with ‘wet feet’ as excessive rains continued to fall in the central region. South American market analyst Michael Cordonnier stated that the later planted soybeans and the double crop soybeans were impacted more so than the earlier planted soybeans. This is due to the fact that the later planted soybeans were much smaller in stature when the wet weather hit.
China imported 7.66 million tonnes of soybeans in January, the highest for the month since at least 2010, customs data showed on Friday, as delayed shipments arrived during the month and crushing demand remained strong. Imports were down 15% from last month’s 9 million tonnes, but up 35% from a year ago, figures from the General Administration of Customs showed.